A Beginner’s Primer on Probability

A Beginner’s Primer on Probability

Gnome Stew contributor Matthew Neagley has put together a good brief on probability in games. This is a helpful review, though I admit I needed a few more examples to wrap my head around arrangements.

Neagley is right that all players would benefit from a basic understanding of their chance of success for any given action.

Underdog

A card game for 2-5 players

You Need:

• 2-5 Players
• One deck of cards shuffled

Each Round:

Deal five cards to each player. Players examine their cards, turn face cards and tens face up in front of them, and place one other card face down in front of them. (This other card is called your Underdog card.) All remaining cards are placed in one big pile in the middle of the table with everyone else’s extra cards. This pile is the “Big Dog.” (So you have your 10s, Jacks, Queens, and Kings in front of you, along with one other face down card of your choice. All the rest of your cards go with everyone else’s in the Big Dog pile.)

Each player must then say whether they think “Big Dog” or “Little Dog”  will win this round. Big Dog wins if the pile in the middle of the table totals higher. Little Dog wins if all the players’ face up cards plus your Underdog card totals higher.

All cards are turned face up, and the Big Dog and Little Dog are totaled.

• Face cards and 10s are worth ten points
• Aces are worth one point
• All other cards are worth their printed number

Note: Since your Little Dog is equals everyone’s face cards plus your Underdog card, it is possible that one player’s Little Dog may beat the Big Dog, and another player’s may not.

Scoring:

• If you correctly guessed the Big Dog would beat your Little Dog, you win points equal to the Big Dog.
• If you correctly guessed your Little Dog would beat the Big Dog, you win points equal to your Little Dog.

Bonus Points: Compare the suit of your Underdog card to the suits of the cards in the Big Dog. If your Underdog suit is the least common suit in the Big Dog, or if there are no cards in the Big Dog with a suit matching your Underdog, you win points equal to five times the number of people playing.

Next Round:

Shuffle all the cards and play again. Play for at least three rounds.

Note: for the first few rounds, while you are learning the game, it may be helpful to put all the face up cards together in a second pile. That way you are guessing whether the face down Big Dog pile is the strongest or the face up Little Dog pile plus your one hidden card is the strongest. In playtesting, this decreased the new players' confusion.

Friendly – A Game of cards for 2-4 Players

This is a game about choices. First, players secretly choose whether to play aggressively or defensively (by picking either a black or red ace). Then, on each turn, a player must choose whether to increase the size of the two pots, or to take the smaller pot for himself.

Set Up:

You need two decks of cards shuffled together with aces set aside. Give each player a black ace and a red ace.

Each Round:

Each player must choose to place either the black or red ace face down in front of him. He should place the other ace off to the side. (See End of Round for the effects of choosing black or red.) The first player starts by dealing three face down cards to the player on his left and one face down card to himself.

Each Turn:

The player who has the smaller pile of cards in front of him must choose either to deal another face down card to each pile and then pass each pile one player to the left OR to end the round.

End of Round:

Once the round has ended, turn both piles face up. Each player must now reveal whether he chose a black or red ace.

•          If all players chose red aces, all players gain points equal to the smaller pile. This is called a “Friendly” round.
•          If all players chose black aces, each player gets points equal to the pile in front of him. This is called a “Vicious” round.
•          If some players chose black aces and some chose red aces, the losing player gets points equal to the smaller pile. This is called a “Rough” round.

Scoring:

Cards have a value equal to their number. Face cards are worth ten. Aces have been removed and do not have a value.

Next Round:

Each player must again choose to play either a  red or black ace. The rest of the cards are shuffled, and the player to the left of the one who ended the last round is the new first player.

Play at least two rounds and until at least one player has fifty or more points.

3 Ways the Church Fails the Mentally Ill

Imagine your daughter has a broken arm. For some reason, the doctor has determined that it would be unwise to put her arm in a cast. The wound is real, and it will take at least several weeks to heal, but for some reason, the doctor has chosen not to bind up the arm. Your daughter is old enough to understand how to take of her injury, and she must limit her activities just like anyone else with a broken arm.

There’s a problem. Without that cast on her arm, how will other people know that her arm is broken? How will her friends know that she can’t play softball, whether she wants to or not? Will Mr. Stephens, her gym teacher, believe her when she tells him that she is not allowed to do pushups? At the very least, we can guess that strangers will think your daughter is rude when she refuses to shake hands.

You know that she has a very good reason to avoid all these activities. She has a broken arm. She physically cannot do pushups, and she finds it painful to play softball or even to shake hands. But other people can’t see her injury. Even if she tells them about her arm, they don’t see a cast. Some may doubt her. Others will believe her, but will come back next week and ask her again to do these impossible tasks, simply because they don’t understand that this is an injury that will take time to heal.

Now, imagine that instead of a broken arm, your daughter has a mental illness. Your daughter suffers from a clinically diagnosed life-altering, long-term handicap that no one can see. When your daughter’s friends ask her to play on the swing set, her phobia of heights literally forces her to decline. When her teacher invites her on a class trip, her anxiety disorder prevents her from going along, even if it means her grades will suffer. When a stranger meets your daughter, they find her odd, even rude, because her autism spectrum disorder leads her to act in ways that they can’t understand.

I have a disability that you cannot see, and when I have described it to my fellow Christians, I have seen three responses by well-intentioned church members that, if you’ll pardon the pun, drive me crazy. I am a person in (at least) the second or third generation of my family to suffer from a clinically diagnosed anxiety disorder. I partially manage it with medication, and I’m doing very well, thank you. However, there are times in my life when I need to explain my medical problem to people. There are certain little things I do, like sitting on the end of the row in the movie theater, which help keep me comfortable, when otherwise, for no particularly logical reason,  I wouldn’t be. When I have described my condition to other followers of Jesus, I have had a mixed reaction. Here are three responses I consider failures:

1. Disbelief – some people act as if my anxiety disorder is not real. Or perhaps they believe that my condition is so minor that I am complaining with no good reason. After all, most people consider themselves pretty good observers, and if they’ve never noticed my anxiety disorder, it must not be that bad. To me this response demonstrates a lack of mercy. Such a reaction fails to hear Jesus’ words, “Blessed are the merciful, for they will be shown mercy” Matthew 5:7.
2. Demonology – some Christians assume that mental illness is the result of demonic influence in my life, or the result of some ongoing sin issue. This person’s gut reaction is to first figure out whose fault the mental illness is, and then to overcome it with prayer. Though it is clear in scripture that illness is sometimes the result of sin or even supernatural influence, it is just as clear that illness is not always someone’s fault. Jesus addressed this issue when “his disciples asked him, ‘Rabbi, who sinned, this man or his parents, that he was born blind?’ ‘Neither this man nor his parents sinned,’ said Jesus, ‘but this happened so that the work of God might be displayed in his life’” John 9:2-3.
3. Disregard – some people believe me that I have a mental illness, and genuinely feel bad for me. But after a week, or a couple of weeks, or a month, they become irritated that my mental illness has not yet gone away. It’s as if they treat me like the victim of a crime, who at first deserves their sympathy, but after a while they wonder, “Shouldn’t he have gotten over this already?” Besides a disregard for my feelings, this irritation at my weaknesses seems to me to come from a disregard for one’s own weaknesses. I realize that I am not perfect, physically or spiritually. But neither are you. Just as I may inconvenience you from time to time, so you may inconvenience me, and yet you are still worthy of my respect and deserving of my kindness. In fact, we have been commanded, “Do nothing out of selfish ambition or vain conceit, but in humility consider others better than yourselves” Philippians 2:3.

These three responses are failures because they hurt. I know perfectly well that these people did not wake up and decide to behave rudely to people with mental illnesses. In fact, these are all examples drawn from my friends’ and family’s behavior. These are people who care for me, but who have responded in ways that hurt. I mention this not in order to garner sympathy but in order to educate. Other mentally ill people I know have experienced the same sorts of snubs and rude comments. Let me give you an alternative. Let me suggest the following as a better response. Treat this person as if they have an injury you cannot see. Treat them like you would your daughter with the broken arm. A mentally ill person who tells you they are mentally ill is generally well-informed enough to tell you what they can and can’t do.

1. Believe them. If I tell you I can’t stand being in a traffic jam when someone else is driving, I am telling you that my body will do strange things to me if I put myself in that situation. (Specifically, this situation would cause my body to release chemicals which cause feelings of pure panic. There is no logical reason for these feelings, but I have observed myself enough to know that I ought to avoid this situation.) I do not suggest catering to a mentally ill person’s every whim. They don’t get to pick what kind of pizza you order. But if they explain their limitations for you, believe them. You can only see them on the outside, but God knows that they may be suffering. “Man looks at the outward appearance, but the LORD looks at the heart” I Samuel 16:7b.
2. Encourage them to live healthy normal lives. If they are taking care of themselves and figuring out how to live a full life, treat them just like you would any other person with a limitation. If my friend with food allergies finds a good cookie recipe he can eat, I encourage him. If my blind friend makes himself some Braille dice so he can play games, I tell him how awesome that is. As long as a mentally ill person is getting his or her needs taken care of, treat them with respect and encourage their efforts toward a normal life. If a mentally ill person refuses any kind of medical help, tell them they are shooting themselves in the foot. Like any handicap, temporary or permanent, professionals can help. Just as you wouldn’t want your daughter to play softball with a broken arm, you wouldn’t want your manic-depressive brother to go off his medication without talking to his doctor. “Therefore encourage one another and build each other up, just as in fact you are doing” I Thessalonians 5:11.
3. Be patient. Some mental illnesses eventually go away. Some can be completely conquered with therapy. (As I understand, phobias can often be reduced or overcome with the right help.) But some mental illnesses are long-term. If your friend has seen a doctor, and is doing what he can to manage his handicap, be patient with him. Making him feel guilty for not getting better is illogical and counterproductive. If I made you feel like a failure because you still couldn’t see out of your glass eye, I would be a huge jerk. Don’t be like that, be patient. “Be joyful in hope, patient in affliction, faithful in prayer” Romans 12:12.

Ultimately, how you choose to respond to someone with a mental illness says more about you than it does about them. My goal in this essay has been to point out a blind spot that has caused hurt feelings inside the Christian community. My hope is not that you feel guilty. My hope is that you choose to change the way you respond to the mentally ill, so that you behave more like Jesus Christ, who loved and challenged and encouraged people whether they were sick or well, rich or poor. My desire for you is that you will know the joy God has in store for you, and that you will share it with your mentally ill friends and loved ones in a way that shows no rudeness or ignorance. I strongly suggest that you ask your friends directly if there is a way they would prefer to be treated, or if there is something you do that shows disrespect for their handicap. After all, these have been my opinions, and I might just be crazy.

Apocalypse Manager

Apocalypse Manager

A modular mini-game for RPGs set during impending Apocalypse

You need:

• A GM and at Least Two Players
• A Deck of Cards
• Paper and a Pencil

How to Play Apocalypse Manager:

Have the GM ask each player the following three questions: (Feel free to rephrase this to more tightly match your game.)

• Does your character have more food or water than she did at the beginning of this session?
• Did your character actively prevent the death of innocent bystanders this session?
• Did your character generally behave this session in a way her parents and grandparents would consider to be law-abiding?

For each Yes answer, deal that player one card from the deck. The GM then deals himself one card per player (minimum three cards). Players then choose how they want to distribute their cards. Players can play cards into the Global pile, the National pile, or the Local Pile (or any combination).

• The Global pile affects how the apocalypse is progressing across the entire world.
• The National pile affect how the apocalypse is progressing in the nation or larger region where the characters live.
• The Local pile affects how the apocalypse is progressing in the town or local area where the characters actually live and work.

Once the players have distributed their cards, everyone reveals their cards, including the GM. Players must determine if they have beaten the GM on the Global, National, and Local levels.

If the GM beats the players in one of these three categories, add one to that Apocalypse level. For example, if the GM beats the players on the Global level after the first session, the Global Apocalypse Level is 1.

If the players beat the GM in one of the three categories, subtract one from that Apocalypse level. For example, if the players beat the GM on the National level after the first session, the National Apocalypse Level is -1.

Whenever any of the apocalypse levels reaches 5, add one to the other two levels. If Global, National, and Local ever all reach 4 or higher, the campaign ends in a fiery apocalyptic doom.

Whenever any of the apocalypse levels reaches -5, subtract one from the other two levels. If Global, National, and Local ever all reach -4 or lower, the campaign ends with the whole world safe from the apocalyptic threat. The apocalypse is over.

It is up to the GM and the players to determine what actually gets better or worse about the world as these three Apocalypse levels go up or down. Here just a few examples to spark your creativity:

The beginning of the first Matrix movie is at Global 4, National 4, Local 3.

In my opinion, Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome has a Global 2, National 4, and Local -2.

The movie Shaun of the Dead reaches Local 5 by the end.

28 Days Later is a good example of National 5, but the rest of the world is fine, so Global is -3.

Planet of the Apes is post-apocalypse, so all Global, National, and Local are all in the negative.

Podcast Coming

For the past couple weeks, I've been working on putting together a podcast. I decided I would wait until I had put together a few episodes before setting up the website. It looks like I will have enough material to move forward, but I'm starting to look for people to interview. 

If you or someone you know has experience with roleplaying games and Christianity, and has opinions about the relationship between the two, please let me know. I might be able to use you.

What would it take for you to publish a game? Would you be okay with a free supplement, or would you wait until you had something you could charge for? If the latter, would you be satisfied with PDF-only, or would you wait for a printed book?

Let me know how you feel about your own games?